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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE FACING THE WRONG DIRECTION

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are possible on
Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast.

...Synopsis...
A upper low across northeast Illinois Friday morning will move
slowly east through the day before stalling Friday night in the
Upper Ohio Valley. A surface low in the southern Great Lakes region
will weaken during the day with a diffuse cold front extending from
central Ohio to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. 

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast...
A very moist airmass will remain across the Ohio Valley/Tennessee
Valley to the Atlantic Coast on Friday. Therefore, moderate to
strong instability is expected across much of the region as
temperatures warm into the 90s. Weak height falls, a weak/diffuse
cold front, and lee troughing east of the Appalachians will all
support widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon/evening.
Deep-layer shear will be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots), but the
strongly unstable environment and hot/moist boundary layer will
support the threat for some strong to severe storms with a primary
threat of severe gusts. 

...Southern Arizona...
Monsoon moisture is forecast to surge northward into southern
Arizona on Friday as temperatures warm over 100F. Southeasterly
mid-level flow of 15-20 knots around the southern periphery of the
mid-level ridge will aid in storm organization and may result a few
strong to severe storms. The deeply mixed boundary layer will
support a primary threat of severe gusts. If storms can congeal once
they move off the higher terrain, higher probabilities may be
warranted.

..Bentley.. 08/01/2024