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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds are expected across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States, mainly this
afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England...
Steady height falls are expected as the region is increasingly
influenced by the lead portion of an upstream upper trough over the
Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the
upper 50s to low 60s F) will be in place across the Mid-Atlantic
ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, and to the south of a
wedge/backdoor front across southern parts of New England.

Relatively robust heating (70s to low 80s F) will result in the
development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE
expected to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected along the cold front by mid-afternoon, with
convection spreading into the I-95 corridor by late afternoon or
early evening. Relatively strong mid-level flow on the periphery of
the large mid/upper-level low will support effective shear of 40+
kt, sufficient for some storm organization. Low-level flow is
expected to remain rather weak, but relatively steep low-level lapse
rates will support some damaging wind gusts potential with the
strongest cells/clusters through around sunset. 

...Georgia to Carolinas/southeast Virginia...
Prevalent multi-layer clouds exist or are moving into the region
today in advance of an eastward-moving cold front. More appreciable
forcing for ascent will be directed north of the region, but weak
height falls will tend to occur along with a strengthening of winds
aloft, especially with northward extent. Although questions exist
regarding the exact degree of destabilization due to early day cloud
cover, at least modest diurnal destabilization is expected by
mid/late afternoon ahead of the cold front and probable increasing
thunderstorm development.

This developing afternoon convection may remain somewhat
disorganized due to the relatively weak deep-layer shear, but steep
low-level lapse rates will support some potential for damaging winds
with the strongest storms. Marginally severe hail also cannot be
ruled out in areas where somewhat stronger buoyancy can materialize.

..Guyer/Smith.. 04/14/2022