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Mesoscale Discussion 1775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern NE and southwestern IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582...

Valid 312304Z - 010000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582
continues.

SUMMARY...A swath of 75-90 mph wind gusts is possible with an MCS
moving eastward across southeastern Nebraska into southwestern IA
through at least 01Z.

DISCUSSION...As of 2250Z, radar data from KOAX indicates a
well-organized, forward-propagating MCS tracking east-northeastward
across southeastern NE into southwestern IA at around 45 kt. This
MCS has a well-established rear-inflow jet and northern book-end
vortex. Wind gusts upwards of 80-90 mph have been reported with the
MCS in southeastern NE. Downstream, extreme surface-based
instability (4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) and around 40 kt of deep-layer
shear (per VWP data) oriented perpendicular the gust front should
support the maintenance of this MCS across southeastern IA through
at least 01Z. Wind gusts of 75-90 mph are the main concern, and
brief mesovortex tornadoes will also remain possible.

..Weinman.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41149604 41509632 41759621 42089581 42199529 42189496
            42099459 41539423 40909446 40639503 40539567 40689597
            41149604