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Mesoscale Discussion 1763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...central Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 311456Z - 311630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Locally gusty winds of 40-60 mph are possible across parts
of central Indiana through early afternoon. Severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms near the IL/IN border will continue
to track east/southeast the next few hours. Overall structure and
organization of this activity has decreased co*pared to
overnight/earlier this morning. Measured wind gusts with this
activity have mostly been in the 30-40 kt range, with a couple
locally higher gusts. The downstream environment remains weakly to
moderately capped with deep-layer flow relatively weak (less than 30
kt effective shear). With continued heating, inhibition should
gradually decrease. However, instability and shear are expected to
remain somewhat modest. While some minor intensification is
possible, timing and coverage of any greater severe risk is
uncertain. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is not expected in the
short term, but trends will be monitored and watch issuance is
possible later this morning or afternoon if trends increase
sufficiently.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40608781 40548737 40188620 39888581 39688583 39328603
            39158633 39228677 39308726 39458774 39668799 40088805
            40358801 40608781