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Mesoscale Discussion 1761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...south-central/southeast IA...northeast
MO...west-central IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576...

Valid 310731Z - 310930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and localized damaging wind threat
in the greater Des Moines metro area may shift southeast through
dawn, with increasing potential for severe gusts. An additional
severe thunderstorm watch issuance may be needed to the
east-southeast of WW 576.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection has largely congealed over the greater Des
Moines metro area within the exit region of a southwesterly
low-level jet. This convection has only produced reported hail up to
1.25 inches in diameter, despite deep convective cores characterized
by echo tops to 60 kft and cold cloud-top temperatures in IR
imagery. Given how deep this cluster has beco*e, and with additional
cells forming along its southern flank, a strengthening surface cold
pool should develop over the next couple hours. Within the
prevailing westerly mid-level flow regime per DMX VWP data, this
should yield a southeastward movement to the cluster along the
pronounced MLCAPE gradient. Potential acceleration would yield a
corresponding increase in the severe gust threat, that should spread
southeast towards a portion of the Mid-MO Valley later this morning.

..Grams/Guyer.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41649457 42029423 41879356 41459189 40799054 40319049
            40129071 39909118 39989213 40399331 41429445 41649457