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Mesoscale Discussion 1760
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Northwest to central SD and far south-central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 310707Z - 310900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and severe gusts, including
potential for significant severe, may occur as scattered storms
mature over northwest into north-central South Dakota. Some
uncertainty exists on timing of a sustained severe threat, so a
watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...UDX VWP data confirm the presence of near 25-kt
southerly lower-level jet which is aiding in convection developing
across a portion of northwest into north-central SD. This appears to
be occurring to the north/west of a weak surface cyclone in vicinity
of Ziebach/Dewey counties. Upstream, a shortwave trough evident in
water vapor imagery near the Bighorn Mountains will likely enhance
large-scale ascent later this morning. The bulk of evening CAM
guidance suggests this will aid in a more sustained severe threat,
but the HRW-ARW indicated a more earlier threat which is better
timed to the ongoing development. The presence of a rather steep
lapse rate environment and adequate deep-layer shear for supercells
suggest that any sustained updrafts will have the potential to
produce large hail and severe gusts, which may beco*e significant.
This should occur as convection impinges on increasingly larger
buoyancy emanating north from south-central/southeast SD.

..Grams/Guyer.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45430224 45880161 46240031 46019956 45499890 44819859
            44319851 44029900 44010056 44250191 44880236 45430224