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Mesoscale Discussion 1753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...Portions of western into south-central South Dakota
and far north-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572...

Valid 302332Z - 310100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572.

DISCUSSION...A few discrete supercells are ongoing from portions of
west-central SD to north-central NE -- generally focused immediately
ahead of a north/south-oriented dryline/lee trough. These storms
have been producing severe hail ranging from 1.25-2.00 inches in
diameter. Middle/upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints and steep
deep-layer lapse rates are contributing to strong surface-based
instability, which co*bined with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will
support a continued increase in updraft intensity during the next
few hours. Generally weak large-scale and mesoscale ascent will
likely favor a continued discrete/semi-discrete supercell mode, with
large to very large hail and locally severe gusts the main concerns.

Currently, the most intense discrete supercell is turning/deviating
to the south-southeast across southern Ziebach County, SD. With
minimal inhibition and the aforementioned shear/instability
downstream across southwest/south-central SD, this is the most
favorable corridor for very large hail (up to around 2.5 inches) and
severe gusts upwards of 75 mph.

..Weinman.. 07/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43080119 43650185 44100221 44320226 44750206 44870172
            44740141 44480115 44240099 43890071 43469994 43089936
            42739913 42409950 42349998 42470041 43080119