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Mesoscale Discussion 1512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...Northern to northeastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 474...

Valid 182038Z - 182245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 474
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds and large hail will continue
across WW 474 for the next several hours as storms continue to
intensify.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR imagery across MT continues to show
gradual intensification of ongoing convection with a steady decrease
in cloud top temperatures. Lightning counts have also trended up,
and additional convective cells continue to develop across central
MT as the migratory upper wave shifts east out of northern ID. A
special 18 UTC sounding from GGW sampled the downstream environment,
and after adjusting for recent surface observations, hints that
MLCAPE values remain near 500 J/kg with some lingering inhibition.
This inhibition, co*bined with somewhat narrow CAPE profiles, is
likely responsible for the slow intensification observed thus far.
Further intensification remains expected this evening as storms
migrate towards the ND border where low-level moisture is richer. In
the near-term, a few updrafts appear deep enough to utilize the
strong environmental shear sampled by the special sounding
(effective bulk shear near 40 knots with a largely straight
hodograph above 1 km), and will maintain a severe wind/hail threat.

..Moore.. 07/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46770962 47221042 48111080 48991100 49141063 49150516
            48750465 48060444 47380460 46830521 46590671 46550809
            46770962