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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough, likely near the Upper Midwest Thursday morning,
will slowly move east through the end of this week and the weekend
as a large amplitude ridge builds over the western CONUS. This slow
moving trough will be the primary feature associated with potential
severe weather during the extended forecast period. 

On D4/Thu, a large cluster of storms will likely be ongoing in the
western Great Lakes in response to the forcing from the mid-level
trough and moderately strong isentropic ascent. A very moist airmass
(mid 70s dewpoints) will likely remain on the southern/southwest
extent of any ongoing convection. This will likely be the focus for
potential severe weather threat across Illinois/Indiana/Ohio on
Thursday. Strong instability will be present, however shear will be
somewhat weak, except for portions of Illinois where mid-level flow
will strengthen during the late afternoon/evening. There is still
uncertainty regarding the timing and amplitude of this mid-level
trough. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at
this time. 

As the mid-level trough continues east on D5/Fri and into the
weekend, moisture quality, and thus instability, is forecast to
weaken. In addition, the slowing/deamplifying nature of the
mid-level trough will result in weakening mid-level flow. Therefore,
while some isolated/widely scattered severe weather threat may occur
across portions of the eastern CONUS, a more organized severe
weather threat appears unlikely.