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Mesoscale Discussion 1723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southern South Dakota into far
north-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 290200Z - 290400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe wind gusts and isolated
large hail may persist across portions of southern South Dakota into
far north-central Nebraska for the next few hours. The need for a
watch is still uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 0150Z, thunderstorms have recently increased in
coverage and intensity across portions of southwestern South Dakota
-- where a large cold pool has developed. These storms are beginning
to intercept a plume of post-frontal/recycled boundary-layer
moisture (lower/middle 60s dewpoints) north of a surface low
centered over central Nebraska. Steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled
by regional 00Z soundings) above the destabilized boundary layer
could support the maintenance or perhaps intensification of these
storms as they continue east-southeastward during the next few
hours. And, a long/straight hodograph (around 45 kt of 0-6km shear
per the KUDX VWP) will conditionally support organized convection,
including the potential for supercell structures and/or line
segments. Isolated large hail (some possibly very large) and severe
gusts are possible with any longer-lived storms. 

Generally weak large-scale ascent and gradually increasing nocturnal
stability cast uncertainty on the overall coverage of severe threat.
Therefore, convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43230243 43430308 43630341 43840341 43980334 44150299
            44220250 44270187 44270115 44069983 43629870 43139863
            42879907 42890016 43230243