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Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Areas affected...northeastern Colorado into adjacent portions of
western and central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281924Z - 282030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm development is expected in
the northeastern Colorado/southeastern Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle
vicinity in the next hour, and then shifting/intensifying eastward
with time.  Storms should remain isolated, but increasing risk for
severe-caliber wind gusts and/or hail may eventually warrant WW
consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows TCU development
from southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado into
southwestern portions of the Nebraska Panhandle.  CB/storm
development is expected within the hour across this area, as the
boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize.  

As the convection spreads eastward with time, it will encounter a
somewhat more unstable environment across southwestern Nebraska and
adjacent northwestern Kansas, resulting in gradual intensification
of the convection.

With that said, storms are likely to remain isolated, given the
relatively dry airmass aloft (reflected by low PW values only around
one inch).  This, co*bined with generally modest shear, suggests
that overall severe potential will likely remain somewhat
limited/localized.  Still, any stronger/sustained updraft will be
capable of producing strong/damaging wind gusts -- aided by the
aforementioned dry air suggesting of evaporatively enhanced
downdrafts.

..Goss/Gleason.. 07/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   41210258 41610170 42150025 42119857 40719827 38879993
            38600173 40120231 41210258