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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts
of the central and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight.

...Synopsis...
Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs, some convectively enhanced, are
forecast to move across parts of the central and northern Great
Plains later today into tonight. One surface low is forecast to
gradually deepen across western SD, in the vicinity of a front that
may beco*e nearly stationary during the afternoon. Another surface
low may develop near a surface trough across western KS. Very steep
midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong buoyancy across
a broad region of the central/northern Plains into parts of the
upper Midwest. 

Storm evolution could be rather co*plex later today, with multiple
potential areas for diurnal development and intensification, and
some potential for one or more corridors of severe/damaging gusts,
along with some threat for hail and possibly a tornado or two. 

...SD and vicinity...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon
across parts of western SD, near/north of the front and in the
vicinity of the surface low. 30-40 kt of midlevel flow atop
low-level easterlies north of the boundary will provide sufficient
deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a couple supercells
will be possible initially. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be a
threat with the initial discrete development. Outflow consolidation
could support development of an upscale-growing cluster (as depicted
by several hr** members), which could propagate quickly
east-southeastward toward southeast SD and vicinity, with a threat
of severe gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. Greater unconditional
wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases
regarding this scenario. 

...Central High Plains...
While large-scale forcing/ascent will be somewhat weaker with
southward extent, strong heating and removal of MLCINH will support
at least isolated storm development from western/central NE into
western KS, and potentially into northeast CO. Moderate to strong
buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will
support a conditional risk of severe storms (including supercell
potential) with any diurnal development in this region. Storm
coverage remains uncertain, but the environment will conditionally
support potential for both severe gusts and hail. 

...Eastern NE into IA/MO...
A potential MCV evolving from overnight convection across
western/central NE will move eastward through the day. Some guidance
depicts diurnal storm development in the vicinity of this feature,
somewhere from eastern NE into western IA. Should this occur, strong
buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear could support at least an
isolated severe threat, with some potential for upscale growth into
a southeastward-moving cluster. Even if substantial diurnal
development does not occur, an increasing low-level jet could
support increasing storm coverage across parts of IA/MO later this
evening into the overnight, which could be acco*panied by a threat
for isolated strong/damaging gusts and/or hail.  
 
...Southwest into northeast MN...
In the wake of potential elevated convection during the morning,
scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front during
the afternoon across parts of MN. A notable weakness in midlevel
flow will tend to limit deep-layer shear and storm organization
across the region, but MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg and some
modest enhancement to low-level flow could support localized
damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with the strongest updrafts.  

...Parts of MT/WY...
Relatively high-based convection is expected to develop across parts
of western/central WY into southern MT, in advance of a shortwave
trough moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. A couple
stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters will be possible, with an
attendant threat for isolated severe gusts. 

...MS/AL/TN...
Rather widespread convection is expected later today from parts of
the Ohio Valley into the Southeast, in association with a
mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward out of the Ozarks
vicinity. Somewhat stronger heating and midlevel flow along the
southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong storms
across parts of MS/AL/TN, but with generally modest deep-layer shear
and weak midlevel lapse rates, the potential for any organized
severe threat across this region remains uncertain.

..Dean/Weinman.. 07/28/2024