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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

Primary change to the Day 2 (Sunday) Fire Weather Outlook update was
to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights southeastward into
central and southeastern Montana, as well as northern and eastern
Wyoming. Fuels are critically receptive to fire spread in these
areas, driven in part by drought conditions. While recent rainfall
has occurred in the past week, and a few storms may produce locally
wetting rainfall on Day 1 (today), this precipitation will not
likely dampen fuels enough to eliminate wildfire-growth potential
for tomorrow. The latest guidance consensus shows fast-moving,
high-based thunderstorms moving across the central and northern
Rockies atop a well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by
inverted-v soundings extending above 700 mb. Some of these storms
may produce strong, erratic wind gusts that can exacerbate wildfire
growth, and severe gusts cannot be ruled out (see the Day 2
Convective Outlook for more details on severe thunderstorms). The
co*bination of critically receptive fuels, and at least a few dry
thunderstorms with strong to severe wind gusts, warrants the
expansion of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights, even if some
preceding fuels dampening takes place.

..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/

...Synopsis...
Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry
and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern
Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally,
a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and
Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western
Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. 

...Dry Thunder...
Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level
trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for
isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are
receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. 

...Dry and Windy...
Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on
Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical
criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions
for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical
highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of
the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will
continue to be monitored.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...