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Mesoscale Discussion 1707
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Areas affected...Southwestern into North-Central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 252025Z - 252300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few clusters of storms should emerge by late afternoon,
posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show persistent cumulus
development in high terrain areas of southwestern into north-central
Montana, with a few echoes now appearing on regional radar. This
activity is developing in proximity to a cold front moving through
the region, where surface heating and ample low-level moisture has
allowed for destabilization coincident with upper-level forcing for
ascent along the southern periphery of a mid-level trough. These
factors are yielding MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Strong flow
associated with the trough is also yielding a broad region of
deep-layer shear overspreading the area, with effective bulk shear
values of 30-40 kt.

The convective trends noted above are expected to continue. The
early convection, mainly over southwest Montana presently, is
expected to move northeast and expand in coverage, resulting in
scattered thunderstorms within a southwest to northeast oriented
corridor over central Montana by late afternoon/early evening. A few
clusters of storms may emerge with time. Strong low-level lapse
rates (> 9 C/km) across the region and the aforementioned enhanced
flow aloft should allow for strong to severe outflow winds,
particularly with any clusters of storms that develop. Given this
potential, watch issuance is possible for the region and convective
trends will be monitored.

..Karstens/Smith.. 07/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   45490937 45021010 45091084 45671139 46561149 47451073
            48280998 49110903 49100691 46840821 45490937