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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...PARTS OF WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...NORTHEAST NV INTO
NORTHWEST UT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern
North Dakota and northwest Minnesota during the afternoon and
evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible
across parts of Wyoming into the northern High Plains, south-central
and southeast Arizona, and northeast Nevada into northwest Utah.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern
Rockies/High Plains and Canadian Prairies on Friday. Immediately
ahead of this trough, one or more lower amplitude shortwave troughs
may eject northeastward across the Dakotas. Continued
deamplification of a persistent upper ridge over the Southwest is
expected, as a shortwave trough moves inland over California and
eventually into the Great Basin. Farther east, an upper trough will
persist across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS
Valley, with another upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward
across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

...Eastern ND into northwest MN...
A relatively narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization
(with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2500 J/kg) is expected from
eastern ND into northwest MN Friday afternoon, along/east of a cold
front. While stronger large-scale ascent is expected to remain
displaced north of the international border, isolated storm
development will be possible during the late afternoon into the
early evening. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will conditionally
support some storm organization, and a supercell or two will be
possible initially, with a threat of hail, localized damaging gusts,
and possibly a tornado. 

A moderate low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage
through the evening. While there may be a tendency for convection to
beco*e increasingly elevated with time, an isolated severe-storm
threat could persist into Friday night. 

...WY into parts of the northern High Plains...
Some modest low-level moistening will be possible into parts of WY
and western SD on Friday afternoon, though guidance varies regarding
the magnitude and timing of this moisture return and related
destabilization. There will be some potential for relatively
high-based convection to develop during the afternoon and evening,
potentially aided by any low-amplitude shortwaves ejecting
northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. One or more
clusters capable of isolated severe gusts could move across parts of
WY into western SD and adjacent portions of extreme southeast MT and
northwest NE. 

...Arizona...
Strong thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of
central/southern AZ on Friday. Steering flow may tend to be a bit
weaker and more northerly co*pared to previous days, which would
limit the southwestern extent of the severe threat. However,
depending on the magnitude of destabilization in the wake of
potentially extensive convection on D1/Thursday, isolated strong to
severe outflow gusts will be possible during the afternoon closer to
the Rim, and potentially into lower elevations during the evening. 

...Northeast NV into western UT...
High-based thunderstorm development is again expected across parts
of NV into western UT Friday afternoon into the evening, in advance
of the shortwave trough moving into CA. Moisture and instability are
forecast to be weaker co*pared to D1/Thursday, but isolated strong
to severe gusts will be possible with any deeper convection. A
Marginal Risk has been added where confidence is currently greatest
in storm coverage within a relatively favorable downburst
environment.

..Dean.. 07/25/2024