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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may still pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts this evening across parts of the Southwest, the
northern Intermountain region into northern Rockies, and a small
portion of the Mid Atlantic.

...01z Update...

...Arizona...
Orographic forcing has supported and maintained scattered
thunderstorm development near the Mogollon Rim, which is slowly
attempting to propagate away from the higher terrain, aided by weak
northerly mid-level flow.  Although boundary-layer moisture to the
immediate south of the higher terrain is seasonably modest, and
supportive of only generally weak instability, the hot and deeply
mixed sub-cloud layer is conducive to gusty outflows, which could
still spread into the somewhat more moist lower deserts and support
increasing thunderstorm development this evening.

...Northern Intermountain region/Rockies...
Downstream of an inland progressing short wave trough, 40-50 kt
west-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer will continue to
enhance storm motions and the potential for widely scattered strong
to severe gusts in the more vigorous convective development
overspreading the region through mid/late evening.

...Southeastern Virginia...
Heavy precipitation loading, in an environment with seasonably high
precipitable water in excess of 2 inches and moderately large CAPE, 
may continue to support a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts
in isolated strong thunderstorm development overspreading the
region, aided by downward mixing of west-southwesterly deep-layer
mean flow on the order of 30+ kt.

..Kerr.. 07/25/2024