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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts
across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across
parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile,
another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the
Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening.
This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level
ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A
nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across
TX into the lower MS Valley. 

...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England...
A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across
Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and
eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness
will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest
destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is
evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich
low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow
will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm
organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of
the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to
near-severe hail. 

Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest
destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler
temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the
region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during
the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm
organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence
of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding
heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be
needed for parts of Maine. 

Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be
possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of
convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into
central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker
co*pared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include
probabilities at this time. 

...Northern Great Basin into Montana...
High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the
northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the
approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer
flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and
a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will
be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has
been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized
threat of strong to severe gusts. 

Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the
northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow
gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. 

...Arizona...
Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona
co*pared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in
place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially
across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally
severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor
during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the
D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the
severe threat may be co*paratively reduced on Thursday, but the
potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce
a 5% wind area. 

...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley...
Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across
parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in
association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region.
Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow
could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated
damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However,
any organized severe threat across the region appears rather
nebulous and uncertain at this time.

..Dean.. 07/24/2024