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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...MID ATLANTIC
REGION...ARIZONA...AND THE NORTHWEST STATES....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts
from parts of Iowa/Illinois into Pennsylvania/New York.  Other
locally strong storms are possible in parts of the Northwest,
northern Rockies, Southwest, and Mid Atlantic regions.

...IA/IL/IN...
Large-scale troughing will amplify on Wednesday as a shortwave
trough over MN digs into the western Great Lakes.  A surface cold
front will sag into the Mid MS an OH Valleys by afternoon, with very
warm and humid conditions expected to the south of the front.  All
00z model solutions agree on the development of afternoon storms
along/ahead of the front from southeast IA into central IL/IN. 
Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep lapse rates, and degree
of CAPE suggest a threat of a few strong/severe storms capable of
damaging winds and some hail.

...PA/NY...
As the aforementioned front sags into western NY, slightly enhanced
southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen warm advection and
lift over parts of eastern NY/PA.  This will likely lead to
scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon.  Forecast soundings
show MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear
for a few organized storm clusters capable of locally gusty/damaging
winds.

...NC/VA...
Deep west-southwesterly winds will strengthen by this afternoon
along a corridor from the southern Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic states.  This enhanced flow/shear profile will aid in
helping to organize scattered diurnal thunderstorm development from
western NC into parts of southern/eastern VA.  Mid-level lapse rates
will be poor, but strong heating and high PWAT values will promote a
risk of a few intense storm clusters capable of gusty/damaging
winds.

...AZ...
The upper ridge over the western states will remain centered over
parts of NV/UT today, with 15-25 knots of northeasterly mid-level
flow across central/eastern AZ.  Meanwhile at the surface,
considerable moisture is expected to spread northward from Baja CA
into the lower deserts overnight, with dewpoints around 60s expected
tomorrow.  Most 00z CAM guidance suggests multiple clusters of
thunderstorms will form along the eastern rim and mountains of
eastern AZ, with steering flow helping to spread the storms westward
into the moist air mass Wednesday evening.  This may lead to a more
active convective day over central/southern AZ, with damaging wind
gusts possible.  Will maintain only MRGL risk at this time, but
trends will be monitored for possible upgrade to SLGT in later
updates.

...Northwest...
Relatively fast cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the Pacific
Northwest states into the northern Great Basin.  Water vapor imagery
shows ample mid-level moisture in place from northern CA into
southern OR, which should spread eastward and aid in afternoon
thunderstorm development from OR into parts of ID/MT.  Forecast
soundings show weak CAPE, but a few of the stronger cells could
produce locally gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024