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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally
damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic
vicinity.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic...

An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on
Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow
will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting
effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected
across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers,
especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely
inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A
narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable
shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly
along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast
soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps
marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a
risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early
evening. 

...Northern Great Basin into Central MT...

An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern
Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper
southwesterly flow will beco*e oriented over portions of ID/MT into
the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will
be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v
sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates
however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While
southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the
afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain
during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply
mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as
storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a
southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is
also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few
strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of
potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities
at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/24/2024