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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF
CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

An active fire weather day is likely across portions of the interior
Pacific Northwest. 

Scattered dry thunderstorms are expected to occur in two possible
waves tomorrow: the first developing across the higher terrain in
and around southwest Montana; the second developing a little later
across portions of Oregon and quickly moving northeast. Across both
areas, storms should be moving fairly quickly, limiting the
potential of any single thunderstorm to produce wetting rains at any
one location. Thermal profiles will favor strong, gusty outflows
with these thunderstorms causing erratic local winds near any
ongoing fire. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms will be
possible in some locations, which may result in localize flash flood
potential across burn scars.

Across interior portions of Oregon and Washington, hot, dry
conditions will once again be present. Winds will also increase a
bit from today owing to the proximity to a short-wave trough
glancing the region. This won't necessarily result in widespread
critical fire-weather conditions (per SPC criteria), but
elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions along with the
co*bined threat of multiple fire hazards (hot, dry, windy along with
dry thunderstorms) will result in the overall fire threat being
higher than any single SPC highlight.

..Marsh.. 07/23/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge over the Rockies will gradually break down under the
influence of a deepening Pacific trough entrenched over the
Northwest. Strong mid-level flow moving onshore will aid in
mid-level destabilization, supporting scattered to widespread
thunderstorms and the potential for significant lightning Wed
afternoon and evening. Dry downslope winds are also possible in the
lee of the Cascades supporting elevated fire-weather potential.

...Northern Great Basin Northwest and the northern Rockies...
A widespread and potentially significant lightning event appears
possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies Wed and
Wed night. As the upper trough over the northwest continues to
deepen, weak height falls and stronger flow aloft will gradually
overspread the Intermountain West. Diurnal heating with increasing
mid-level moisture (PWATs of 0.8-1 in) will support elevated
buoyancy atop deep and well-mixed boundary layers. In addition to
the very dry sub-cloud layer, mean storm motions of 35-40 kt suggest
poor to very poor precipitation efficiency.

Scattered thunderstorms appear likely by early to mid afternoon
ahead of a weak cold front and across the higher terrain of eastern
OR, central ID and west-central MT. Storm coverage should gradually
increase through the afternoon and evening as storms move
east/northeast into the northern Rockies. Scattered to numerous
cloud to ground lightning strikes, and occasional strong downdrafts
will be possible over areas of very dry fuels, warranting the
introduction of Critical Dry Thunder probabilities.

In addition to the Critical risk for lightning, increasing flow
aloft twill support gusty downslope winds and low RH in the lee of
the Cascades. Very warm temperatures and wind gusts of 15-25 mph
will overlap with RH below 20% across the western Columbia Basin and
Cascade Gaps, as well as across western MT. With numerous ongoing
fires and robust fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather
conditions are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies Wed.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...