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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts
across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered
storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the
Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great
Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper
trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the
Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will
shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the
Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic.
Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will
extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into
the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern
High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest.

...Northwest/northern Rockies...
Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and
western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the
upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold
front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms
across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in
eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong
heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps
1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong
evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during
the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most
probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and
the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater
wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the
degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in
subsequent outlooks.

...Arizona/New Mexico...
Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support
MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the
upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly
mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New
Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to
organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold
pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at
least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be
possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive
of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase
in the location of the most organized convection.

...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as
any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is
forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but
will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and
marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms
could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be
isolated damaging winds.

...Northwest/central Iowa...
Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa.
However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the
stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be,
storm development is not certain. The environment will support a
conditional threat of large hail should storms develop.

..Wendt.. 07/23/2024