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Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Areas affected...southeast Missouri into northern Arkansas into far
western Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 172335Z - 180200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail or wind is expected through
evening, from southeast Missouri into parts of northern Arkansas and
into western Kentucky and Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Storms have gradually increased in coverage ahead of a
weak front, from south-central MO into northwest AR. This boundary
should continue pushing south this evening, providing a weak focus
for development in a very moist air mass. MLCAPE generally exceeds
2000 J/kg ahead of the storm cluster across southeast MO, and will
remain uncapped. 

A propagating cluster of cells appears most likely in the near term,
with brief periods of hail and locally damaging gusts. Southwest 850
mb winds will increase to over 30 kt tonight, further aiding
propagating/backbuilding updrafts. Initially, some of the cells may
tend to beco*e undercut by the outflow. However, a more substantial
wind threat is possible should storms continue to increase in
coverage and merge outflows.

..Jewell/Grams.. 07/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35329235 35679272 36079282 36429280 36739262 37169205
            37589149 37799079 37699010 37348895 36758851 36088836
            35638909 35429050 35329235