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Mesoscale Discussion 1694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Carolina and far
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222049Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized damaging wind threat is increasing across
portions of northeastern NC and far southeastern VA. A brief tornado
also cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms
beginning to merge across northeastern NC. Additional thunderstorms
were also developing along a differential heating boundary near the
far eastern NC/VA border. These storms are an environment
characterized by a moderately buoyant airmass and modest deep layer
effective shear, under a belt of relatively stronger mid to upper
level southwesterly flow. Continued cell mergers over the next 1-2
hours will have the opportunity to produce damaging wind gusts. In
addition, slowly increasing low-level flow may result in a localized
increase of helicity near the aforementioned boundary through early
this evening, and thunderstorms exhibiting more supercell like
structures may have the opportunity to produce a brief tornado
before the onset of nocturnal stabilization. Given the very
localized nature of the severe threat, however, a WW is not
anticipated at this time.

..Barnes/Smith.. 07/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   37247578 37057582 36667583 36217580 35957610 35757710
            35757774 35767836 35817868 36537821 36967772 37297746
            37357674 37317619 37247578