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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
early evening over portions of the mid-Atlantic region, as well as
western Arizona to the lower Colorado River Valley.

...Discussion...
Aside from minor line adjustments to affect recent/local trends, no
appreciable changes appear to be needed, with respect to the ongoing
forecast.  Prior reasoning continues to reflect expectations
regarding convective/severe risk through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 07/22/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024/

...Mid-Atlantic states...
A narrow ribbon of slightly enhanced southwesterly 500-mb flow will
remain across NC/Delmarva to the southeast of a broad/weak mid-level
trough centered over the Great Lakes southwestward through the
Ozarks.  Although large-scale forcing will be modest, a seasonably
moist airmass (14-16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios per 12
UTC area raobs) will gradually destabilize through the mid
afternoon.  Midday visible satellite imagery shows the initial
stages of a building cumulus field across the Carolinas northward
into eastern VA.  Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this afternoon within the moderately unstable
airmass.  Some strengthening in south-southwesterly 850-mb flow is
progged by models later this afternoon into the early evening.  A
few of the stronger storms may pose a localized risk for damaging
gusts (45-60 mph).  If a transient supercell can develop (primarily
21-01z), a brief tornado is possible.  This activity will likely
diminish by mid-late evening owing to nocturnal stabilization.

...Western AZ/lower CO River Valley...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this
afternoon/evening as surface temperatures soar into the 100s. 
Although flow will be weak due to proximity to the mid- to
upper-level ridge, large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions
(around 50 deg F) will favor evaporative cooled downdrafts with the
more robust thunderstorm cores.  A few severe gusts (60-70 mph) are
possible before this activity wanes by mid evening.

...Southeast New England...
Model guidance indicates increased shower/thunderstorm potential
late tonight (08-12 UTC) as a strengthening LLJ shifts northeastward
from the Mid-Atlantic coast to near the continental shelf/deep
Atlantic waters off the southeast New England coast.  The latest
models generally indicate meager to no surface-based buoyancy
penetrating the coast, thus precluding low-severe probabilities this
outlook update.