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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

The area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has
been expanded into portions of southwest Montana. The latest hr**
guidance indicates potential for isolated thunderstorms into this
region amid fuels that remain receptive to large-fire spread.

Brief/localized elevated wind/RH conditions may also occur across
parts of the northwestern Great Basin, as westerly surface winds
develop during the peak heating of the late afternoon/early evening
time frame.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the
discussion below for more details.

..Karstens.. 07/22/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024/

...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the Northwest is forecast to remain mostly
stationary as the adjacent ridge over the Rockies begins to weaken
and shift to the east. Stronger flow aloft will gradually overspread
the Northwest and northern Rockies through the week. Isolated dry
thunderstorms and gusty downslope winds will promote elevated
fire-weather potential D2/Tuesday.

...Northwest and Northern Rockies...
With the upper trough over the Northwest expected to remain fairly
stationary, lingering mid-level moisture and weak ascent will
continue to support mid-level destabilization and thunderstorms
D2/Tuesday afternoon. Very warm surface temperatures and fast storm
speeds will again favor mostly dry storms with the potential for
lightning ignitions in dry fuels. Forcing for ascent should be
slightly less than previous days, casting some uncertainty on storm
coverage. However, at least isolated dry thunderstorms are possible
over parts of eastern WA/OR and into western ID.

West/southwest flow aloft is forecast to increase over the northern
Rockies and Cascade Gaps ahead of the trough. This may promote
several hours of gusty downslope winds across parts of eastern ID
and western MT. Model guidance shows surface winds of 15-25 mph
overlapping with RH values below 20%. This, along with the increase
in lightning, will support the potential for elevated fire-weather
conditions D2/Tuesday afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...