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Mesoscale Discussion 1693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Areas affected...Central and eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221832Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through
late this afternoon across portions of central and eastern NC.
Damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado late this afternoon, will
be possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar imagery suggest an
increase in moist convection is ongoing along a weakly convergent
sea breeze and within subtle DCVA. This area is also under a belt of
relatively stronger mid to upper level southwesterly flow, and near
a moderate instability axis extending southwest to northeast.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s co*bined with temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s are contributing to MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg. As
destabilization continues through this afternoon, and effective
shear remains around 30-35 kt, a few organized updrafts are
anticipated. In addition, a modest increase in low-level flow late
this afternoon near the northeastern NC coastline may result in some
enhanced low-level helicity and the opportunity for a brief tornado.
The main concern, however, will be damaging wind gusts via
precipitation loading especially with any supercells that manage to
develop and/or clusters contributing to deepening cold pools. Given
the expected severe weather coverage, a WW is not anticipated at
this time.

..Barnes/Smith.. 07/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   34327849 34267878 34647918 35657920 36547882 36557626
            36547582 36107566 35927570 35077655 34847709 34327849