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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
The stagnant upper pattern which has prevailed over the U.S. for the
last several days will remain generally unchanged Tuesday.  Ridging
will remain centered over the West, while troughing/cyclonic flow
prevails once again over central and eastern portions of the
country.  One slight change will be a tightening of the height
gradient over the East, as a western Atlantic ridge gradually
expands westward.

At the surface, a weak baroclinic zone will remain in place from the
Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward into Texas.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected near and ahead of this front, coincident
with afternoon destabilization.  As the aforementioned tightening of
the height gradient aloft allows some enhancement to the mid-level
flow, and associated mid-level southwesterlies, shear sufficient for
multicell organization is expected.  However, with low-level flow to
remain weak, any risk for severe weather -- largely in the form of
gusty winds -- should remain local/isolated.  Given the limited
magnitude of the risk, the isolated coverage, and the broad area of
potential (from the central Gulf Coast region to the Mid-Atlantic
area), overall risk across this area is too low to introduce any
severe risk areas at this time.

Meanwhile in Arizona, storms are again expected to develop over the
Rim during the afternoon, and then spread southwestward into the
lower deserts given northeasterly winds at mid levels.  At this
time, however, will refrain from including a severe-weather risk
area as coverage of convection remains uncertain given the apparent
lack of any mid-level disturbance within the anticyclonic flow-field
aloft.

..Goss.. 07/22/2024