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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

Minor refinements were made to the area delineating potential for
isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest
in the wake of morning convection clearing the region. Otherwise,
the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for
more details.

..Karstens.. 07/22/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will begin to weaken today
under the influence of a broad mid-level trough moving onshore over
the Pacific Northwest. Weak ascent, increasingly strong
southwesterly flow aloft and inland moisture advection will support
thunderstorms and gusty winds across the higher terrain of the
Northwest and northern Rockies. Dry lightning and locally dry and
breezy conditions are possible.

...Northwest, and Northern Rockies...
Isolated, mostly dry, thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at
the start of the period as convection from overnight lifts north
with the advancing upper trough. Additional storm development is
possible later this afternoon, as peak diurnal heating and lingering
mid-level moisture will support the development of weak elevated
buoyancy. Deep and well-mixed sub-cloud layers, along with moderate
storm speeds, will favor low precipitation efficiency and the
potential for dry lightning strikes with any storm that develops. 

Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther south across parts
of the Great Basin, but higher PWATs and multiple days of prior
storms suggest a wetter mode is more probable. Coverage of dry
storms appears highest across parts of south-central OR, extending
northeastward across central ID into western MT. With receptive
fuels in place over much of the Northwest and northern Rockies, the
risk for lightning ignitions is high.

In addition to the risk for lightning, gusty downslope winds are
possible across parts of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin
this afternoon. Increasing mid-level flow atop a hot and well-mixed
boundary layer may support occasional gusts to 15-25 mph through the
Cascade Gaps. However, coverage and duration of the gusty winds is
expected to be limited.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...