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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

The upper trough over the upper Great Lakes vicinity will slowly
begin to migrate east toward the lower Great Lakes and the OH Valley
on Wednesday into early Thursday. This will result in modestly
increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially the second half of the
forecast period. At the surface, a cold front will sag
south/southeast across the Mid-MS and OH Valleys. Meanwhile, a
surface trough is expected to extend south/southwest across
eastern/central VA/NC. Weak vertical shear and poor convergence
along the Midwest cold front will preclude organized severe
thunderstorm chances. Further east, some severe potential could
develop across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity where a very moist airmass
will persist. However, forecast guidance depicts varying amounts of
cloud cover and possibly early convection across the region.
Furthermore, poor lapse rates and marginal vertical shear (around 30
kt effective shear magnitudes) may further limit severe potential
across parts of NC/VA into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2024