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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

Slight expansion to the isolated dry thunder area was made in parts
of eastern/northern Washington. CAM guidance and forecast soundings
show potential for storms during the afternoon in these areas. Some
lightning activity is possible very early in the period in the
Columbia Basin, but confidence in coverage is not particularly high.

..Wendt.. 07/21/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to
intensify as it merges with a second trough moving onshore from the
eastern Pacific. Stronger flow aloft ahead of the trough will move
inland, increasing mid-level moisture to the west of a weakening
mid-level ridge. Thunderstorms are likely ahead of the trough over
parts of the northern Rockies and Northwest, with dry fuels and
little rainfall supporting a risk for dry lightning ignitions.

...Northwest, and Northern Rockies...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early in the
period as convection from the previous day continues to advect north
with the advancing upper trough. Additional storm development is
possible later in the afternoon, as peak diurnal heating and
lingering mid-level moisture allow for weak buoyancy. Deep and
well-mixed sub-cloud layers, along with moderate storm speeds, will
favor low precipitation efficiency and the potential for dry
lightning strikes with any storm that develops. Scattered
thunderstorm are also possible farther south across parts of the
Great Basin, but a wetter mode is more probable. Coverage of dry
storms appears highest across parts of south-central OR, extending
northeastward across central ID into western MT. With receptive
fuels in place over much of the Northwest and northern Rockies,
IsoDryT probabilities are warranted.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...