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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Discussion...
A largely unchanging upper flow field is forecast to persist across
the U.S. on Monday, with a ridge over the west, and weak/cyclonic
flow covering much of the central and eastern states.

At the surface, a weak surface baroclinic zone will remain in place
from the Northeast southwestward to Texas, while a weak/largely
nondescript pattern prevails elsewhere.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across a large
portion of the country, as in previous days.  A stronger storm or
two could affect portions of New York, where an amply unstable
environment will co*bine with shear possibly supporting local
multicell organization.  Risk appears too low to warrant inclusion
of severe wind probabilities at this time.  

Convection is also expected to develop once again across the
Mogollon Rim during the afternoon, and with modest northerly flow
aloft, some southward/southwestward propagation of storms into the
lower deserts is again a possibility.  While the deep mixed layer
could support isolated stronger gusts, risk at this time does not
appear to warrant introduction of 5% risk.

Elsewhere, aside from a sporadic, isolated stronger storm,
severe-weather is not anticipated CONUS-wide.

..Goss.. 07/21/2024