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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON...

Behind the mid-level shortwave trough now over northwest
Oregon/western Washington, thunderstorm potential has decreased in
parts of southwestern Oregon. The isolated dry thunder area has been
modified to account for this decreased potential. Elsewhere, the
outlook remains unchanged as isolated to scattered thunderstorms
remain possible late this morning into this afternoon.

..Wendt.. 07/21/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/

...Synopsis...
A weak upper trough moving along the western periphery of the stout
ridge centered west of the Rockies will bring increasing mid-level
moisture onshore through today. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are
possible, along with hot, dry and unstable conditions, from the
northern Great Basin through much of the Pacific Northwest. An
outbreak of dry lightning is probable over receptive fuels across
the interior Northwest today and tonight.

...Northern Great Basin and Northwest...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the
start of the period underneath the northward-moving upper trough
along the coastal ranges of OR and southern WA. While gradually
decreasing in coverage through the morning, a few storms may persist
with a risk for lightning strikes as they move north into WA along
and west of the Cascade Crest.

Behind the initial round of storms, weak height falls and mid-level
moisture advection will continue through the day across parts of
northern CA/NV and south-central OR. Weak broad-scale ascent, in
co*bination with diurnal heating and orographic lift, will support
scattered thunderstorm development from mid afternoon through the
evening hours. A co*bination of wet (displaced farther south), but
mostly dry thunderstorms appear likely with weak buoyancy atop deep
mixed-layers and moderate storm motions. Given the low precipitation
efficiency and faster storm motions, wetting rainfall potential
appears quite low. A significant outbreak of dry lightning is
probable within very dry fuel beds across parts of the northern
Great Basin and interior Northwest.

Thunderstorms may continue overnight expanding northward along the
northern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Some risk for
isolated lightning strikes may extend into Day2/Monday.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...