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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon into early evening across parts of central and southern
Arizona, and from southern Colorado to eastern New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern will remain rather blocky over and near
the CONUS through the period, with longwave ridging remaining over
the West, and a persistent, positively tilted longwave trough from
QC across the mid Mississippi Valley to central/south TX.  A series
of mostly small shortwaves will traverse the modest northerly flow
aloft, in between those features, over the Plains States and
central/southern Rockies.  A long-lived anticyclone -- initially
centered over the lower Colorado River Valley -- will continue to
retrograde, drifting northwestward over parts of NV while expanding
somewhat.

Farther northwest, a strong shortwave trough was apparent in
moisture-channel imagery over and offshore from the coastal OR/CA
border.  This feature should accelerate northward through the period
and weaken, being absorbed into the eastern semicircle of a massive,
slow-moving cyclone centered over the Gulf of AK.  The trough will
pass along and just off the OR/WA coastline today, and over
Vancouver Island to coastal west-central BC by 00Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a weak, muddled surface pattern
north of an increasingly diffuse, wavy frontal zone that extended
from the Hampton Roads region across the Tennessee Valley region to
parts of southern OK and north TX.  That front should continue to
demarcate richest Gulf moisture from a lesser-modified, more
continental air mass to the north, and should remain
quasistationary.

...South-central Rockies and adjoining High Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will form from midday
through the afternoon and move generally southward, with local
deviance to the southeast or southwest as boundary and outflow-
driven processes force.  Weak low/middle-level winds will limit deep
shear, with multicells the dominant storm mode.  Due to the lack of
greater buoyancy, and high-elevation nature of the surface limiting
boundary-layer depth in many instances, much of this convection
should remain relatively shallow and struggle to organize.  However,
the most vigorous cells, including those that move over valleys and
lower Great Plains elevations with deeper subcloud layers and
greater boundary-layer moisture content, will pose a threat for
isolated severe gusts and marginal hail.  Some cold-pool aggregation
also may occur, especially over Plains areas of east-central/
northeastern NM and extreme southeastern CO.  300-800 J/kg MLCAPE
should be co*mon across this region in the preconvective air mass. 
The overall strong/severe thunderstorm-wind potential should
diminish through the evening as the foregoing boundary layer
stabilizes diabatically, and stable-outflow coverage increases.

...AZ...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop today, primarily as strong
insolation preferentially erodes MLCINH amidst at least marginal
moisture, over the Mogollon Rim and adjoining higher elevations of
eastern/central/northern AZ.  With the retrogression of the mid/
upper ridge, the mid/upper flow will be largely northerly, and
through a fairly deep layer (roughly 700-300 mb, sometimes higher). 
Activity therefore should move southward to southwestward across
deeper mixed layers of the lower desert elevations, with at least
isolated severe downdrafts possible.  Peak MLCAPE may reach the
500-1000 J/kg range in some areas, and should be at least 250 J/kg
over most of the outlook, with DCAPE co*monly over 1000 J/kg. 
Boundary mergers, orographic effects and storm-scale outflow
aggregations may focus the severe threat locally within this broader
"marginal risk" area.  Convection may go as far as the borderlands
before weakening this evening -- hence the minor extension of the
outlook area.

...Interior Northwest...
Widely scattered to scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected
to develop this afternoon over much of inland OR, northeastern CA
and northern NV, amid peripheral large-scale lift from the Pacific
trough and strong surface diurnal heating.  This activity may
produce locally strong, often dry downbursts -- indeed, scattered
dry thunderstorms are forecast in the SPC fire-weather outlook. 
Large dewpoint depressions (40-70 deg F) should result after a few
hours of diurnal mixing, causing a drop in buoyancy, but with enough
(200-600 J/kg MLCAPE) to support thunderstorms with subcloud/
boundary-layer depths reaching into the 500-600 mb layer.  Lack of
greater low/middle-level flow and buoyancy both preclude an
unconditional severe outlook, but a downdrafts approaching severe
limits cannot be ruled out.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/21/2024