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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A somewhat more progressive upper-level pattern will emerge during
the Day 4-8/Wed-Sun period. The upper trough over the Great
Lakes/Midwest early in the period will shift east across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Day 6/Fri. As this occurs, the
western upper ridge will overspread the central portion of the CONUS
while a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern
Rockies and Pacific Northwest. 

The Great Lakes upper trough will deepen on Day 4/Wed, and a cold
front will sag south/southeast across Lower MI and northern
IL/IN/OH. This could focus a corridor of strong thunderstorm
potential, but vertical shear will remain modest and training
thunderstorm activity may favor heavy rain rather than organized
severe. As the upper trough migrates east toward the Northeast Days
5-6/Thu-Fri, a surface cold front will spread across the Midwest
into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Deep-layer flow is not
forecast to be very strong, but a very moist airmass will be in
place, and some potential for strong thunderstorms is possible near
the end of the work week from VA northward into southern New
England. 

Overall, organized severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8
period.