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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon into early evening across parts of central and southern
Arizona, and from southern Colorado to northeast New Mexico.

...Southwest...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through sunset within a generally modest north-northwesterly
mid/upper flow regime between an anticyclone over the western Great
Basin and a low-amplitude trough in the central states. The most
likely corridors for thunderstorm development will be across the
southern Rockies and the Mogollon Rim.

For the CO/NM portion, more favorable wind profiles will exist here,
but buoyancy will largely remain weak owing to below-normal surface
temperatures. Convection will probably struggle to greatly
intensify, but a few updrafts may acquire transient supercell
structure and be capable of marginally severe hail during the
afternoon. Storms should largely consolidate into multicell clusters
moving south-southeastward, with mainly a strong-gust threat over
southeast CO and northeast NM that subsides closer to sunset.

For the AZ portion, deep-layer shear will remain weak, but a more
northerly orientation to the mid/upper flow should foster convection
over the Rim spreading south into the lower deserts. Buoyancy south
of the Rim should be moderate, with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg amid
hot temperatures and low to mid 60s surface dew points. Loose
multicell clustering may occur as outflows spread
south-southwestward. While small to marginally severe hail is
possible along the Rim, strong to isolated severe gusts will be the
main hazard before convection weakens after sunset.

..Grams/Lyons.. 07/21/2024