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Mesoscale Discussion 1500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Areas affected...Central Kentucky to western West Virginia and far
southern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 171909Z - 172115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensification is possible through the mid
afternoon as storms migrate northeast into the upper Ohio River
Valley. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch is
possible if a severe threat beco*es apparent.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have begun to
develop across central KY and far northern TN over the past 30-60
minutes. While this activity is currently fairly shallow and weak
(based on IR and lightning trends), gradual intensification is
possible through the mid afternoon. Visible imagery show some degree
of clearing downstream across eastern KY and western WV with surface
temperatures responding by warming into the low 80s. Areas of
shallow cumulus are also noted, which is further indication of
boundary-layer destabilization. Lift ahead of an upstream MCV will
help maintain the ongoing convection and may support additional
development. Mean flow along the general axis of initiation suggests
gradual upscale growth into one or more clusters is likely. Recent
reflectivity trends show some interactions already ongoing, which
supports this idea and may be indicative of an increasing wind
threat downstream if convection can intensify. The degree of
organization/intensification (and the subsequent severe threat)
remains somewhat uncertain given the modest effective-layer shear
(estimated to be around 20-25 knots based on regional ACARs
soundings and latest VWP observations). Trends will continue to be
monitored, and a watch is possible if sufficient storm
organization/intensification occurs.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   37458597 38488373 39298243 39278116 38848021 38308007
            37858032 37228217 36948335 36638533 36688589 37058610
            37458597