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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...

...Update...
Overall, the fire weather forecast has changed very little for
Sunday. Scattered dry thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and OR
High Desert, with isolated coverage extending over the northern
Sierra Nevada and Cascades. In addition to dry thunderstorm chances,
sustained northerly wind speeds around 15 mph and low RH near
northwestern CO, where seasonal ERC percentiles are beginning to
exceed 80, may result in some localized, brief elevated fire spread
conditions. However, the duration of these conditions do not
currently warrant an Elevated area. Please see the previous
discussion below for additional details pertaining to dry
thunderstorms.

..Barnes.. 07/20/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0223 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/

...Synopsis...
The strong upper ridge will remain in place over the Western US Day2
Sunday as a weak upper trough passes along the western periphery.
Mid-level moisture will advect inland ahead of the trough,
supporting the potential for scattered thunderstorms over much of
the Northwest. Low rainfall efficiency is expected with these dry
thunderstorms over portions of the Cascades and northern Great
Basin. Significant lightning activity is possible within dry fuels
D2/Sunday.

...Northwest and northern Great Basin...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of
the period as the upper trough continues northward along the western
periphery of the upper ridge. Coverage appears greatest west of the
Cascades and toward the Coastal ranges of WA and OR. While these
initial storms should slowly diminish in coverage through the
morning, at least isolated lightning will remain possible over dry
fuels across parts of southern WA and northern OR.

A second round of storms is expected to develop by early to mid
afternoon as weak ascent from the departing upper trough and
orographic lift overlap with diurnal heating. Very warm surface
temperatures and continued mid-level moistening will support weak
destabilization atop deep and well-mixed sub-cloud layer depths of
2-3 km. 30-40 kt of mid-level southerly flow will also favor
moderate storm motions, suggesting very little potential for wetting
rainfall.

Convection should gradually expand along the higher terrain of the
Cascades and northern Great Basin from northern NV/CA into OR and WA
through the day. Scattered fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive
fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile) will favor efficient
lightning ignitions and gusty/erratic surface winds beneath passing
storms. Given the volatile state of area fuels and significant
ongoing fire activity, the potential for scattered lightning
coverage warrants the introduction of critical Dry T probabilities.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...