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Mesoscale Discussion 1681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of east-central Colorado and northeast New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 182201Z - 182330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms will likely continue
this evening with some potential for clustering. Isolated damaging
gusts and/or small hail are possible. A WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...East of a large ridge of high pressure centered over
the western CONUS, diurnal heating amidst weak upslope flow has
allowed for scattered thunderstorm development across portions of
the central and southern Rockies this afternoon. Surface
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F and dewpoints in the 50s
F are supporting weak to moderate destabilization (500-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE) despite only modest mid-level lapse rates. Observational
trends and short-term forecast guidance suggest additional storm
development and some intensification/growth into clusters is
possible into this evening as storms move southeast off the higher
terrain. The moderate buoyancy could support isolated hail while the
relatively well-mixed low-levels may favor stronger downdrafts
capable of occasional damaging gusts. However, with only modest
deep-layer shear (20-25 kt) mostly displaced farther east, storm
organization and longevity will likely be tied to the consolidation
of individual outflows supporting more sustained clusters. While
confidence is not overly high, short-term guidance suggests some
intensification and a severe risk are possible this evening,
especially across southeastern CO into northeast NM where storm
coverage is greatest. Still, given the uncertainties associated with
storm organization and the subsequent severe risk, a WW appears
unlikely.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 07/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   40110571 40620553 40440458 40000419 38930364 36210337
            35220404 35070489 35130535 35700560 37820546 40110571