Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181932Z - 182130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible across portions of central
MT this afternoon and evening. The severe threat is currently
expected to remain sparse, so a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level impulse/500 mb vort max is pivoting around
the upper ridge while traversing the AB/MT border area, which in
tandem with strong surface heating, is supporting recent attempts at
convective initiation (per latest visible satellite). While MLCINH
still remains (per 19Z mesoanalysis), continued surface heating and
approach of the 500 mb vort max should support a gradual increase in
coverage and intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some
vertical speed shear induced by the approaching mid-level impulse
will support elongated hodographs, with multicell clusters and
perhaps a transient supercell or two possible. 19Z mesoanalysis also
shows 8+ C/km lapse rates extending from just above the surface to
over 500 mb, indicative of the potential for efficient downward
momentum transport via evaporative cooling. As such, any storm that
develops has at least some potential for producing a severe gust.

At the moment, it appears that the severe threat should be isolated,
so a WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri.. 07/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   45600946 46311081 47541204 48591287 49021283 49051199
            48571046 47400885 46500814 45910789 45680800 45570872
            45600946