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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Extensive upper ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest
into western Canada on D4/Sunday morning. This upper ridging is
forecast to persist into the middle of next week, while gradually
shifting westward over time. Modest downstream upper troughing
across the central and eastern CONUS is expected to persist through
into the middle of next week as well, with some westward shift of
this troughing also possible. In general, no substantial changes to
the upper pattern are currently anticipated from D4/Sunday to
D8/Thursday.

Westward shift in the upper pattern will likely place the stronger
northwesterly flow aloft between the ridging and troughing over the
higher terrain of the western CONUS, limiting the severe potential.
Farther east, a belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft
may strengthen from D5/Monday through D7/Wednesday as subtropical
ridging building into the southeast CONUS along on the southeastern
periphery of the upper trough. Low-level moisture will gradually
build northward, allowing for some overlap between the enhanced
southwesterlies and modest buoyancy. However, even with this
overlap, the severe potential appears low, with both buoyancy and
vertical shear forecast to remain modest.