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Mesoscale Discussion 1657
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Southeast CO...northeast NM...southwest KS...TX/OK
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 162049Z - 162245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe-wind and isolated hail threat
is possible through late afternoon into early evening.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection developing near the higher terrain of
south-central CO into northeast NM has gradually intensified this
afternoon, with a recent measured gust of 51 kt at Colorado Springs.
Farther east, storms are beginning to develop across parts of
southeast CO into the Raton Mesa vicinity. Low-level moisture is
generally rather modest across the region, but strong heating has
resulted in MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg, with some further
increase possible into late afternoon. Modest northwesterly midlevel
flow along the periphery of an upper ridge over the southern Rockies
is supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt, which may support
occasional storm organization.

Initial discrete storms will continue to pose a threat of isolated
severe gusts and possibly some hail. With time, increasingly
prominent outflow within the initially hot and well-mixed
environment will support development of one or more loosely
organized clusters, which would move southeastward with some
increase in the severe-wind threat into parts of the
central/southern High Plains. Watch issuance is possible over parts
of the region, if a more organized severe threat appears imminent.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38670512 38800169 37820065 36470076 35000080 34950082
            34860235 35000350 36140432 37070460 38670512