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Mesoscale Discussion 1651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Southeast MO into southwest IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161702Z - 161830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat could persist into this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment (with recent measured gusts of
40-45 kt) has recently surged southward across east-central MO, with
the intersection of this bowing segment and a separate outflow surge
from the west resulting in an earlier possible brief tornado over
Warren County, MO. The longevity and severity of this bowing segment
into the afternoon is uncertain, given the presence of widespread
rain and clouds immediately downstream. However, some threat for
locally damaging wind could continue, especially if the bowing
segment is able to persist farther southward, where somewhat
stronger diurnal heating/destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing
above 2000 J/kg) is underway across far southeast MO/southwest IL.
Short-term watch issuance is uncertain, but will beco*e possible if
a more widespread damaging-wind threat beco*es evident.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38809146 38849059 38799008 38418929 37428878 36898941
            36879043 37329097 37619136 38809146