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Mesoscale Discussion 1650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Western/central NY into northern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 161433Z - 161630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat will increase through the
morning, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and
possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV is moving across parts of southern
Ontario this morning, with storms already increasing in coverage and
intensity in the vicinity of Lake Ontario. Diurnal
heating/destabilization downstream of the MCV will support more
widespread thunderstorm development across western NY and perhaps
northern PA later this morning. Rather substantial enhancement to
low/midlevel flow related to the MCV (which is already noted on KPBZ
and KBUF VWPs) will support organized convection, in the presence of
MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. 

While eventual clustering and potential MCS development is expected,
a couple of supercells will also be possible, both with initial
development, and also embedded in any upscale growth that occurs
later in convective evolution. Scattered damaging wind and localized
gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible by late morning into the
afternoon, along with some potential for isolated hail and a tornado
or two with any persistent supercells. Watch issuance is likely by
late morning in order to address these threats.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41717988 42307985 42927920 43627914 43737845 43777781
            43937653 44007615 43997585 43897527 41647491 41457731
            41447987 41717988