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Mesoscale Discussion 1647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...North-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 160838Z - 161115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue over
the next couple of hours across north-central Kansas. Although the
threat should remain localized, weather watch issuance still could
be needed if the cluster maintains intensity and expands in
coverage.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Dodge City
shows a small convective cluster over north-central Kansas, just
west and northwest of Russell, Kansas. This cluster is located to
the west of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP has
MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storm cluster appears to
be supported by a subtle shortwave trough moving through
west-northwesterly mid-level flow. In addition to the instability,
the RAP is showing 200 to 300 J/kg of MLCIN. This introduces
uncertainty as to how long the cluster can persist, and how much
wind can reach the surface. If the storms expand in coverage and
remain at a similar intensity, as they move eastward across
north-central Kansas early this morning, then weather watch issuance
will need to be considered.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...to*...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39519629 39789641 39949667 39979701 39839784 39469893
            39119956 38769970 38509960 38319926 38359840 38589750
            38799686 39099635 39519629