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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered areas of thunderstorms will impact a large area from the
Ozarks eastward across the Ohio Valley and toward the Appalachians.
A few severe storms are expected throughout the period. Isolated
severe storms may also occur near the North Dakota/Minnesota border,
and across southwest Montana.

...MO/AR eastward across KY and vicinity...
Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from northern
MO into southern IL, aided by southwesterly 850 mb winds over 30 kt
and as a shortwave trough moves east/southeast toward the OH Valley.
This activity will be a bit elevated, but could produce strong
outflow. Later in the day, heating ahead of a cold front in MO will
result in scattered storms after 21Z, and this activity could
produce hail and damaging gusts as they expand southward across AR
during the evening and overnight. Other storms are possible across
the lower OH Valley as 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE develops. Outflows from
early day convection may play a role in positioning these diurnal
storms, but low-level shear could favor a brief tornado.

...Southern OH...northeast KY...WV and western VA/MD...
A leading disturbance ahead of the main upper trough will affect the
OH/KY/WV area during the afternoon, resulting in increasing mean
wind speeds aloft. This region will be within the 850 mb theta-e
plume, and strong heating will develop over KY. Storms are expected
to develop over southern OH and northern KY after 18Z, within a
diffuse warm advection zone, with models suggesting an eventual line
of storms with strong outflow potential. Plentiful moisture and
MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg may support a forward-propagating severe-wind
threat, despite relatively weak deep-layer shear.

...Southwest MT...
An upper low will drop southeastward into WA during the day, with
neutral height tendencies farther east into MT. Midlevel westerlies
of 40-50 kt will exist over ID and western MT, and steep lapse rates
will develop during the day near a surface trough extending from
northern NV into MT. As the air mass beco*es uncapped after 21Z,
scattered high-based storms will form over southwest MT, and move
into central MT through 00Z. Forecast soundings show minimal
instability, but long hodographs may favor a few longer-lived storms
capable of locally strong wind gusts, given inverted-v profiles.

...Far northwest MN and northeast ND...
An upper ridge will build over the northern High Plains through 00Z,
with gradual height falls thereafter as a low-amplitude wave rounds
the ridge across southern SK and MB. Weak convergence will develop
near a surface trough late in the day, with strong heating over the
western Dakotas. Dewpoints in the 65-70 F range appear likely during
the late afternoon and evening near the Red River, with minimal
capping. Several CAMs suggest at least isolated cells will form
after 22Z within the unstable air mass, and large hail will be the
primary risk with 70+ kt high-level northwest flow creating
long/straight hodographs.

..Jewell.. 07/17/2022