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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
To the northwest of a prominent anticyclone over the Southwest, a
deepening Pacific trough will move ashore, overspreading strong flow
aloft across the Northwest and Great Basin. At the surface, a cold
front will move inland triggering isolated thunderstorms along the
Cascades and northern Rockies. The strong surface flow, and dry/warm
conditions across the southern Cascades/Great Basin will support
several hours of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions.

...Northern Great Basin...
With flow aloft strengthening on the periphery of the upper ridge,
dry downslope winds will develop off the Sierra and into the
northern Great Basin this afternoon and evening. Deep mixing within
the dry airmass across the region will support sustained winds of
15-20 mph and locally higher gusts. With widespread surface RH
expected below 15%, the environment will easily support widespread
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions into early
evening. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower, owing
to borderline winds. However, the most likely corridor for some
critical concerns appears to be across far northern NV into
southeastern OR closer to the mid-level jet axis. A few hours of
stronger sustained winds may develop here, but confidence remains
too low for a Critical area at this time.  

Farther east, modest mid-level moisture on the periphery of the
ridge will support a few thunderstorms across portions of
central/eastern ID. Model soundings show high-based and fast-moving
storms which may produce occasional lightning over dry fuels. While
some risk of dry thunder likely exists given minimal wetting rain
potential, storm coverage appears too low to warrant IsoDryT
probabilities.

..Lyons.. 07/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...