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Mesoscale Discussion 1637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania and central to eastern New
York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538...

Valid 152136Z - 152330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538
continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line capable of producing severe winds is
expected to continue eastward into central and eastern New York
later this evening. Downstream watch issuance is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, an organized squall line has beco*e
established across north-central PA and western NY. Velocity imagery
from regional radars suggests that winds may be approaching severe
limits, and several wind damage reports have been noted within the
past 30-60 minutes. The downstream environment across central and
eastern NY remains favorable for maintaining this line with upwards
of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and low-level lapse rates approaching 8
C/km. Additionally, enhanced 50-60 knot mid-level flow in the
vicinity of an attendant MCV is noted in regional VWPs, which should
continue to favor an organized squall line. Confidence in the
potential for damaging/severe winds downstream appears sufficiently
high to warrant watch issuance within the next 1-2 hours as the line
approaches the eastern fringe of WW 538.

..Moore.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   40937736 40927742 40957754 41047761 41167750 41477736
            42077742 42487755 42937739 43187705 44057468 43937406
            43597367 43097342 42687338 42207351 41827379 41627413
            40937736