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Mesoscale Discussion 1634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Western NY into north-central PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538...

Valid 152021Z - 152145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two will
remain possible through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...In advance of an MCV approaching eastern Lake Erie, a
relatively long-lived supercell has recently intensified east of
Buffalo, with other strong storms trailing to the southwest across
western NY. A separate small cluster of storms (with a history of
wind damage) is ongoing in closer proximity to a separate MCV moving
across western PA. Modest enhancement of low/midlevel flow in
advance of the MCVs remains evident in regional VWPs, which will
continue to support organized convection through the remainder of
the afternoon. Some upscale growth remains possible with time, which
would potentially support an increase in damaging-wind potential
(with at least localized gusts of 60-70 mph) downstream across
western NY and north-central PA. However, even if some upscale
growth occurs, a couple of embedded supercells will remain possible,
with potential for a tornado or two and perhaps some hail.

..Dean.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40887872 42207901 43357838 43627772 43727656 43767602
            42567611 41677639 41187671 40957791 40887872