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Mesoscale Discussion 1632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Southeast PA into MD/DC/northern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151941Z - 152145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind is possible through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is gradually deepening this afternoon from
south-central PA into northern VA, within an increasingly hot and
well-mixed environment. While stronger large-scale ascent is
displaced to the north of this region, continued
heating/destabilization could support a gradual increase in storm
coverage and intensity through the remainder of the afternoon.
Deep-layer shear is generally modest and low-level flow is rather
weak, but isolated damaging downburst winds will be possible with
the stronger cells, as temperatures approach 100 F across the
region. Northern portions of the MCD area could see another round of
strong to locally severe storms this evening, as an MCV currently
moving across western PA glances the region.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38667882 39537803 40397717 40547662 40517594 40417544
            38777633 38117747 38077802 38127862 38197906 38667882