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Mesoscale Discussion 1631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast IN into
southwest/central OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151918Z - 152115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind are possible through late
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
from east-central IN into southwest OH, within an area of modest
surface confluence and theta-e advection. Evolution of afternoon
convection remains somewhat uncertain in the absence of stronger
large-scale ascent, but moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of
1500-3000 J/kg) and marginally supportive effective shear (generally
25-35 kt per regional VWPs) could support stronger multicells and
perhaps a supercell, with an attendant threat of hail and locally
damaging winds. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely in
the short term, but will be reevaluated if trends support an
increase in the potential for multiple severe storms through the
afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...IND...

LAT...LON   39718633 40028624 40238322 40058182 39168187 39178253
            39148374 39038524 38978571 39038634 39718633